Dawn Breaks on a New European War: Putin’s Miscalculations in Ukraine

Putin’s Greatest Fear

Putin has called the separation of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and claims that his ultimate goal is the revival of the Great Russian Empire. At the same time, Putin has explained his discontent with NATO’s continuous Eastern expansion. Putin has used the idea that Ukraine and Russia must become one again, and the claims that NATO is an offensive anti-Russian force, as justifications for his invasion of Ukraine. Yet, the reality is that Putin is an extremely paranoid individual, and more than anything he fears the Western ideals of freedom, individuality, and liberty, as the spread of such beliefs pose a direct threat to his Authoritarian rule. To this end, Putin sees it in his best interest to expand Russia’s sphere of influence — even through the use of military force — in an effort to counter this rise of democratization.

Vladimir Putin’s Hold on Power

To understand Putin’s objectives in Ukraine one must understand what kind of person Putin himself is. Cold, heartless, and ruthless are words which his own allies have used to describe him, yet they do not paint an accurate picture. Born in the USSR, Putin worked for the KGB (Russian secret intelligence agency) during the 70’s, and later went on to climb the ranks of the political elite. A master of appeasing the powerful for his own personal gain, Putin was appointed Prime Minister in 1999. Ever since, Putin has ruthlessly clamped down on domestic opposition while at the same time opening up Russia’s economy to the rest of the world and keeping Russia’s most powerful in check. By creating and upholding a state of constant fear, Russia has effectively become a country that is run by one man. It is important to understand that Putin is and has always been strategic, methodical, vicious, and practical when advancing towards his objectives. Yet, the invasion of Ukraine seems to be the only exception to this, as it is riddled with miscalculations and lapses of judgment. These will prove dangerous.

Putin’s Great Miscalculations

Putin began his invasion of Ukraine using the same military playbook that he used in the 2008 invasion of Georgia and during the 2014 Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine. This involved the spread of disinformation, the bombing of Ukraine’s air defense systems, and the quick movement of troops into key cities in an attempt to catch the Ukrainian army off-guard. There are signs — both through intercepted intelligence reports and through Russia’s own state media blunders —​​ that Putin believed this war would be over quickly. Indeed, an article was published in RIA (a Russian state-owned media outlet) on February 26th, just two days after the initial invasion, claiming that the Russian military had been victorious in their Ukrainian operation. In Putin’s head, the great Russian army would plow through Ukraine so quickly that the West would have no time to respond, the Ukrainian government would fall within a matter of days, and his people would see him as a savior. 

Why would he not believe this to be the case? He was successful in 2008 and 2014, all of his advisors explained to him that this war would be an easy victory for the Russian military, and Putin genuinely believed his own propaganda that Ukrainians were weak and uncoordinated. Decades of distancing himself from reality by disposing of those who fought back against his narrative created a scenario in which every advisor Putin surrounded himself with would agree with his every word, even if the reality of the situation was completely different. This massive disconnect between Putin’s way of seeing the world and reality led to the military disaster that has been Russia’s first week of war. The Ukrainian military remains intact, the Ukrainian people have mobilized, the West has kept up a steady supply of weapons shipments into Ukraine, and Russia’s economy is already showing signs of collapse. The West’s response, the overestimation of the Russian military, and the underestimation of the Ukrainian people were Putin’s largest lapses of judgment at the inception of the invasion.

The West’s Joint Response

Putin was counting on divisions within NATO slowing down the West’s response. Instead, NATO is as united as it has ever been and the Russian economy is buckling under the pressure of sanctions. NATO has activated its response force for the first time in its history in a massive show of force that makes it clear that Russia is not to advance its troops further into Western Europe. The European Union has sanctioned Putin and his ministers personally, banned multiple Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system (which allows banks to quickly and easily communicate about their transfers of money), and has banned Russian state-owned media from broadcasting in its territory. The United States now has over 100,000 troops stationed in Europe, and has already delivered over $250 million dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine. A poll of Finnish and Swedish citizens — both nations that are not in NATO — shows that for the first time ever a majority of respondents believe joining NATO is in their best interest. Switzerland, a country that is notoriously neutral, banned transactions with Russia’s Central Bank and imposed a variety of economic sanctions in accordance with the EU. Germany, arguably Russia’s largest partner in Europe and one that heavily relies on Russian oil, has taken one of the firmest stances against Putin. Germany indefinitely canceled Nord Stream 2 (a massive $10 billion pipeline that stretched from Russia to Germany), has begun sending lethal weapons into Ukraine in a historic shift that breaks with German tradition of only sending defensive military aid, and has begun seizing Russian oligarchs’ property. Hundreds of companies have now ended their Russian operations, the Ruble has lost over 30% of its value in a matter of days, and Russia’s stock market has been shut down for the longest time in the nation’s history. Putin has managed to not only unite the West, but also distance himself from allies which he once saw as reliable.

Russia’s Military Strength & Preparedness 

Even though Russia’s military vastly outnumbers Ukraine’s military, they are simply not prepared for a long-haul war, and are running out of gas, food, ammunition, and general supplies quicker than Putin can say “special military operation.” There are multiple videos showing perfectly good Russian tanks being abandoned by the dozen on the side of the road due to the fact that they have run out of gas. Not only is the Russian military ill-prepared for the war, but Russian soldiers themselves were kept in the dark about the operation, as they were only informed of the plan mere days before they were supposed to mount a full-scale invasion. Such a failure of leadership has led to widespread desertions, in some cases the amount of soldiers refusing to fight are so massive that whole assaults on Ukrainian cities have been postponed. Russian military logistics are in such disarray that they have begun shipping civilian fuel trucks to the front line in an effort to fix their pressing supply chain issues. Putin expected a repeat of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and was not prepared for the reality that this war will be grueling and long-lasting. Russian soldiers have paid for Putin’s miscalculation with their lives, and even as Russia’s generals reassess and begin to adapt their strategy, there are still enormous logistical, morale, and supply chain issues that will continue to disrupt the Russian operation for the foreseeable future.

How Will Putin Respond?

Even as Russia’s army is in disarray, their economy spiraling towards collapse, and the international community beginning to treat Russia as a global pariah, Putin is unlikely to back down. On the contrary, Putin is likely to re-double his efforts to take Ukraine by force, and analysts fear that the new Russian strategy will be much like the one Putin used in Grozny in 1999 — where the city was completely leveled. The truth is that Russian forces largely avoided civilian areas at the onset of the invasion, most likely in an effort to reassure the international community that Russian interests were to demilitarize Ukraine. Yet, after the introduction of historic sanctions, mounting military casualties, and increasing domestic pressure to save-face, Putin is now in a dangerous situation where he has little left to lose, and must escalate the war in hopes of gaining some sort of strategic advantage. There are already signs that the Russian strategy has begun to change for the worse, as key Ukrainian cities begin falling as they become overwhelmed by the sheer force and brutality of the invading army. At the same time, calls for the ousting of Putin are likely to go unanswered as those around him continue to fear him more than they do the West’s sanctions. In a historic — and illegal — move, Russian police have begun stopping Russian citizens on the street and immediately arresting them if there is any evidence of their opposition to the war.

As Putin once attempted to mask his autocratic and barbaric rule in order to appease the international community, he now blatantly lies to his own troops as he sends them to their death, threatens nuclear war if nations intervene in Ukraine, and turns to a military strategy that is likely to conclude with the complete destruction of Ukraine. Many in the West are still holding hope that Putin will withdraw, but he will never admit defeat, as that would mean admitting there is a limit to his power. Over the past 22 years, there was a shared understanding between Putin and the international community that there were certain lines he was not allowed to cross, now, he has ushered in a new era where there seem to be no red lines left.