The Iran Fiasco
January 15th, 2020
What Happened?
On Friday, January 3rd 2020, President Trump gave the go ahead to kill Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani was an extremely important Iranian government official and the leader of the Quds force, which specializes in asymmetrical warfare throughout the Middle East in pursuit of furthering Iran’s policies. The Quds force works closely with militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Houthis in Yemen, and others inside Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. Countries such as Canada, the United States, and Saudi Arabia have designated this force as a terrorist organization. Soleimani himself has been describes as a ruthless killer and terrorist who is responsible for thousands of deaths, from Israeli civilians to US soldiers to rebels attempting to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
At 12:32 am local time, Soleimani and nine other officials, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandi, who was the deputy of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, were also killed outside the Baghdad International Airport. Soleimani was in Iraq in order to meet with political and military allies, what they would be talking about is not known, but these meetings were nothing out of the ordinary for Soleimani. A day after his death, on January 4th, about a million mourners attended Soleimani’s procession in Tehran. Three days later, 53 people were killed in a stampede during his burial ceremony.
The Response
In response to Soleimani’s death, Iran vowed revenge on the US, and on January 5th Iran withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal, which was meant to entice Iran to reduce its nuclear facilities (it is important to note that Iran had been rolling back the provisions under the Nuclear Deal ever since the US withdrew from the deal in 2018). Shortly afterwards, Trump stated that any escalation from Iran could result in the US targeting 52 significant sites in Iran, some of which included cultural sites (which is a war crime according to the UN). Days later, Trump retracted his statement that the US was considering attacking Iranian cultural sites.
The following day, the US deployed 3,500 soldiers to the Middle East as a “precautionary measure.” The same day, the US embassies in Iran and Iraq urged all American tourists to leave the countries immediately for fear that Iran would target US citizens as a retaliatory measure. In addition, Iraq’s parliament voted to expel all US troops (about 5,000) from its territory in response to the assassination of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandi. The US stated it would not be withdrawing troops and if forced to do so, Iraq could lose its assets in the New York Federal Reserve Bank.
Iran responded in January 8th by conducting missile strikes on two US military bases in Iraq. A total of 15 missiles were launched and landed at Al Asad Airbase and Erbil Airbase, where American soldiers were stationed. Yet, no American casualties were reported since they had gone into bunkers hours before the attacks. The Iranian government initially reported that dozens of US soldiers had been killed, and later stated that, “the attacks were not intended to kill.” That same night, Iran accidentally shot down Ukrainian flight 752, which was flying out of Tehran’s Imam Khomeni International Airport, killing all 176 people onboard. This has caused thousands to protests in Iran and called for the removal of President Hassan Rouhani.
What’s Being Debated?
After the killing of General Soleimani, two main things have become a topic of debate in United States politics, the first discusses the why now question; Why did President Trump (and his advisors) think now was the best time to kill Soleimani? According to several government officials, the idea of killing Soleimani had been brought up to Trump in June 2019, but it was agreed that Trump would consider this move if and when Iran crossed a so called, “red-line” and killed an American citizen. Seven months later, in December 27th, a United States contractor (who was in Iraq training Iraqi personnel) was killed by a rocket attack. Although it is not truly known who launched the attack, it is widely agreed upon that the attack was carried out by an Iranian proxy (probably trained by the Quds force). This is why some believe that Trump was justified for the assassination of Soleimani; because Iran crossed a line and killed a US citizen .
Yet, the Trump Administration has stated that the reason that the killing of Soleimani was warranted was because he was an “imminent threat.” More specifically, that there was a reason to believe that four US embassies would be attacked at Soleimani’s direction. This idea can be supported by the fact that Soleimani played a crucial role in the Iraqi protests at the US’s embassy in Baghdad, which was lead by anti-US militias. At the same time, this narrative has been criticized since there has been no evidence provided that Soleimani had plans to attack any US embassies directly.
Secondly, many are wary of the fact that Abu Mahdi al-Muhandi, the deputy of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq was also killed in the airstrike. This is worrying since the United States sees Iraq as an ally in the region, and therefore killing one of Iraq’s most important military leader can cause the US-Iraqi relationship to deteriorate. This has already started to have an effect as Iraq’s parliament voted to expel all US soldiers from its territory (around 5,500 soldiers).
Some political and policy advisors alike believe that Soleimani’s death does not outweigh the consequences of distancing the US from Iraq, diplomatically speaking. This is further supported by the fact that Soleimani will be replaced by General Esmail Ghaani, who was Soleimani’s Deputy General. Ghaani is widely believed to follow Soleimani’s footsteps and continue to run the Quds force in the same manner. The US’s decision to kill Soleimani is widely debatable, but the effect (whether positive or negative) that this decision will have upon the stability of the Middle East in the years to come is yet to be seen, but sure to have huge implications.